Demand is being master-planned. Supply is being assumed.
South Africa’s tourism recovery conversation has understandably centred on one powerful headline: more than 10 million international visitors. After the devastation of the pandemic years, crossing that threshold represents resilience, competitiveness and renewed global relevance.
The demand side of tourism is clearly being master-planned. Source markets are prioritised. Trade shows are selected with intent. Air access discussions align with target geographies. Campaigns are segmented and deliberate.
This is strategic. And it is necessary.
There is, of course, a parallel debate about what those 10 million arrivals actually represent. How many are long-haul overseas travel versus regional movement and what does that mean for yield? That is a conversation for another day. But it is worth remembering that tourism is fundamentally an export sector. Arrivals are merely a proxy. The real litmus test is spend in the economy through foreign currency earned. Contribution to GDP – that is the Holy Grail.
And spend does not materialise simply because a visitor crosses a border. It materialises when there is depth of product, geographic spread, maintained infrastructure and compelling experiences to convert presence into value.
National campaigns are centrally driven, amplified at provincial level and echoed by metros. Messaging is coordinated. Brand positioning is aligned.
The same cannot be said for the supply side.
The concentration risk we are building
At the 2025 SATSA conference, concerns were raised that post-pandemic tourism has reverted to a “two centre” model, heavily over-reliant on the Cape Town-Kruger route. This concentration creates capacity bottlenecks during peak seasons, limits overall industry growth and leaves other regions under-visited.
These destinations are world-class and deserve investment. But continually packing more volume into the same channel carries predictable risks: overtourism pressures, infrastructure strain, rising costs, community fatigue and environmental stress.
In investment terms, this is portfolio concentration risk. A balanced portfolio is urgently required to ensure deliberate spread, robustness and longevity leading to sustainability.
COVID reminded us why diversification matters. When international travel collapsed, domestic tourism became the stabiliser. Regional and self-drive markets provided resilience.
Breadth became our saviour.
Yet, as arrivals return, we risk rebuilding a system overly dependent on the same narrow channels.
Calling customers to a half-stocked store
To further illustrate this phenomenon, imagine a shopkeeper running an aggressive advertising campaign to bring customers through the door but only stocking a limited range of products.
The first wave may arrive. But, over time, choice feels narrow. Repeat visits decline. The business becomes dependent on a handful of bestsellers.
Now imagine expanding the shelves (and doubling the shop size) for more variety, more price points, more reasons to return and more opportunities for customers to fill a bigger basket of spend.
Tourism works the same way. The irony is that we have plenty of products to put on the shelves. We are investing heavily in calling customers into the store. But, across much of the country, the shelves remain understocked, under-maintained or simply not coordinated.
And, unlike the Middle East, we do not have the sovereign muscle power to embark on a “Build It, They Will Come” strategy backed by limitless capital. This means our starting point must be pragmatic. We start with what we already have. We have plenty.
Start with what we have
A plethora of reports have been commissioned by various tourism government departments over many years and these lie collecting dust in cabinets – not acted upon.
As far back as 2014, a joint Industrial Development Corporation and Department of Tourism feasibility study identified 592 government-linked tourism properties across the country for evaluation and potential redevelopment. That was more than a decade ago. It is difficult to imagine that number has since declined.
Furthermore, we do not need to theorise supply-side neglect as South Africans are narrating it daily. On a daily basis, social media citizenry reveal nostalgia for dilapidated, derelict and underwhelming tourism assets that used to be.
Pilanesberg National Park’s Manyane and Bakgatla resorts were consistently top-ranked in South Africa. That is no longer the case.
Kogel Bay Resort was a beloved municipal beach retreat. It is now described online as “closed again” and “lying in ruins”.
Elandskrans Caravan Park: public posts lament that the “once beautiful” resort is now “only left in ruins”.
From Suikerbosrand Nature Reserve and Bloemhof Dam to numerous provincial and municipal resorts, the refrain is familiar: “used to be a gem”.
These are not obscure assets. They are woven into family memories — school trips, fishing weekends and first safaris.
When they trend, it is not because they lack potential. It is because they once delivered.
The decay is devastating. The opportunity is greater.
Proof points
Recently, across the country, we have seen, on an ad hoc basis, state tourism assets entering the market under public-private partnership concessions often inconsistently structured and without portfolio strategy. Too frequently assets are released late after prolonged neglect making rehabilitation more costly than necessary or even at all.
But, where operating models have shifted, performance has improved.
The Skukuza Golf Club is a case in point. Once struggling under public management, it found renewed viability under private concession. A R25 million (US$1.5 million) private-sector capital injection upgraded greens, clubhouse facilities, restaurant infrastructure and retail amenities transforming it into a state-of-the-art destination within the Kruger National Park. The asset did not move. The operating model did. The result was an activated product rather than an underperforming one.
A similar pattern is unfolding along the Garden Route. After nearly 20 years of dormancy following flood damage, the iconic Outeniqua Choo Tjoe rail line between George and Knysna is being revived under private concession. Vegetation is being cleared, rolling stock refurbished and phased reopening plans implemented. A once idle tourism asset long regarded as one of the world’s most scenic rail journeys is returning to operation through structured private participation without any change in ownership.
A closed tourism asset benefits no one. An operating one creates employment, drives local procurement and generates fiscal returns.
There is appetite on both sides for structured concessions. Government seeks to maintain ownership. Business increasingly prefers asset-light strategies anchored in operational tenure rather than balance sheet exposure.
What is required:
- Strategic housing or coordination of these assets and properties
- Portfolio bundling rather than isolated concessions
- Refurbishment prioritised according to geographic spread and seasonality goals
- Long-term concessions designed to attract credible operators
This is disciplined asset activation.
In 2021, Cabinet adopted the Tourism Sector Recovery Plan. One of its pillars was explicit: “protect and rejuvenate supply”. The objectives were clear: protect what exists and grow new to expand the sector. Benefits included improving geographic spread, addressing seasonality, promoting transformation and revitalising the sector. The framework is not missing.
Beyond the headlines
Achieving 10 million visitors is a milestone worth acknowledging.
But the true measure of recovery is not how many people cross our borders. It is whether the system they arrive into is diversified, maintained and expanding, resulting in increased GDP contribution.
The policy already exists and recognises this. The assets already exist. The capital mechanisms already exist.
The real question is simpler and more poignant: Does the will exist?
Beyond 10 million visitors lies a more consequential task of deliberately building the supply base that can sustain and distribute the benefits of the next 10 million.
