Overseas arrivals in South Africa are showing encouraging signs of recovery but beneath the widely reported triple-digit growth figures lies a more complex reality that demands more rigorous examination.
The sector is certainly moving in the right direction with overall recovery year-to-date reaching 91% of pre-pandemic levels for overseas arrivals. However, declaring victory now and claiming credit risks missing critical insights necessary for sustained, long-term growth.
While recent headlines have celebrated the milestone of total arrivals exceeding 2019 levels for January to October, these topline figures can be misleading.
Total arrivals are up 2% on pre-COVID volumes with October alone posting a 31.5% year-on-year surge. But these numbers are heavily influenced by regional and African land markets.
When you look specifically at overseas arrivals, we remain 9% behind 2019. Key markets such as Europe and Asia continue to lag. The story looks very different once you move beyond the headline figure.
SATSA maintains the sector must now shift its focus from short-term year-on-year spikes to more honest benchmarking against 2019 and a deeper analysis of where growth is actually coming from.
Growth is encouraging but uneven
SATSA’s analysis highlights notable contrasts between markets that have surpassed expectations and those that continue to underperform.
The US has reached 105.7% of 2019 arrivals and Australia stands at 109.4%. In contrast, several traditionally strong European markets remain well below pre-pandemic levels. Germany posted 126.9% quarter-on-quarter growth compared with 2024 but year-to-date sits at only 85.1% of its 2019 volumes. France shows a similar pattern. Despite 113.2% growth in the third quarter year-on-year, it remains at just 80.4% of 2019 arrivals year-to-date. For context, Germany and France are our third- and fourth-largest markets respectively.
The headline growth figures appear remarkable at first glance. But these percentages reflect comparisons against the third quarter of 2024, which was an exceptionally weak period (74% of 2019 levels).
It is essential we understand this statistical context, instead of celebrating extraordinary growth, off what was fundamentally a weak quarter. Year-on-year surges can create a false sense of comfort. A strong quarter often reflects how soft the same period was the year before, and triple-digit growth does not mean a market has fully recovered, when benchmarked against 2019.
Overseas arrivals from China remain a concern. Between March and October, arrivals reached only 42.4% of 2019 levels compared with 46.4% over the same period last year. This is despite the launch of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme in March. The data highlights the need for more robust, targeted marketing strategies that support digital visa modernisation and improved access.
Air access remains a decisive driver of recovery
Air connectivity continues to shape the sector’s performance and illustrates the impact of strategic aviation decisions.
Brazil’s impressive recovery from 25 672 arrivals in 2023 to 49 855 in 2024 was supported by the reinstated direct flights operated by South African Airways and LATAM. These numbers are set to be further bolstered by the introduction by LATAM of the São Paulo to Cape Town route in September 2026.
The UK is also showing meaningful progress, crossing the 90% recovery threshold for overseas arrivals in 2025 and supported by 276 944 passengers between January and September. British Airways operated at 142% of its 2024 capacity after recovering from operational strains during the previous summer. However, opportunities for increased capacity remain, particularly due to the absence of a direct Durban service and the lack of daily SAA flights into Johannesburg.
It is not simply about adding more seats. It is about where those seats are placed, which markets they serve and whether they support growth in high-yield and underperforming regions. Total capacity may be recovering but we are still below 2019 long-haul capacity Europe and that has a direct impact on arrivals.
The Middle East presents another important opportunity. Airlift into the region is already tracking at 109% of 2019 levels (two-way traffic), indicating steady demand.
However, the true potential of this market is obscured because arrival data reflects the traveller’s passport nationality rather than where they are domiciled. Many travellers residing in the Middle East travel on British or other foreign passports due to the region’s large expatriate population. When these travellers fly to South Africa, they are recorded as arrivals from the UK or Europe based on the passport they carry rather than as arrivals from the UAE or the wider Middle East.
This masks the actual size and value of the region as a source market and complicates true measurement. A more nuanced view is essential for developing the right strategies and partnerships to unlock the region’s full potential.
Visa and ease-of-access policies are critical for competitiveness
Visa policy continues to shape South Africa’s global competitiveness.
We have clear evidence that removing bureaucratic barriers works. When visa restrictions for Russia were lifted in March 2017, arrivals surged by 133% year-on-year. Similar opportunities exist today.
Mexico, long constrained by visa requirements, has been included in the first electronic travel authorisation system following the G20 Summit. As the system expands, meaningful growth may follow, provided ease of access is paired with targeted, market-specific engagement.
A call for strategic and evidence-based collaboration
We cannot apply a one-size-fits-all approach to recovery strategies. We need proactive, targeted market campaigns and structured engagement where private-sector expertise is included from the start of planning.
SATSA reaffirms its commitment to a structured and collaborative engagement with our partners at SA Tourism as the best way to address the challenges ahead. The private sector has the ability to make nimble and tactically informed decisions and, where there are gaps in our marketing repertoire, it is often best placed to act quickly and effectively.
We have made substantial gains but the real test is whether we can translate short-term recovery into long-term competitiveness. That requires moving beyond month-to-month celebrations and asking harder questions about market mix, air capacity, visa performance and geographic spread. The challenge now is to use this intelligence to futureproof growth so that South Africa does not simply return to its 2019 baseline but outperforms it in a way that benefits the entire country.
In conclusion, there is an old adage when it comes to inbound tourism. What we see today is a direct result of what we collectively did or did not do 18 months ago. Voices seeking to claim credit for short-term spikes in recovery are opportunistic and disingenuous. We urge a sober and thorough analysis of the data to inform our growth path going forward.
