Industry associations this week warned that travel from the United Kingdom would see a decline after the UK voted in favour of withdrawing from the European Union.
The International Air Transport Association expects outbound air passenger numbers from the UK to drop 5.6% over the next two years. The body said the pound was expected to remain 10-15% weaker than would have been the case under a no-Brexit scenario, although it is expected to recover somewhat over the medium to long term.
David Frost, Satsa CEO, expressed concern last week following the vote. He emphasised that the UK was South Africa’s largest overseas source market for tourism. “From that point of view, I don’t think it’s good news for us,” he said, adding that while the impact of the move remained to be seen, it was unlikely to be good. South African-based DMCs also expressed concern.
In an interview with Bruce Whitfield on SA radio show 702 this week, Mmatšatši Ramawela, CEO of the Tourism Business Council of South Africa (TBCSA) said that, given the uncertainty in the UK and the weakened pound, British tourists would think twice about booking travel. She suggested the coming summer season in South Africa would be hurt by the development.
“We are particularly concerned about those who have not concluded their deals to come to South Africa,” she said, adding that those clients were likely to try negotiate for cheaper rates and also shorten their trips. Ramawela also said that when there was nervousness in the market, people held on to their money.
UK-based Julian Asher of Timeless Africa, told Tourism Update he believed that the development would hurt outbound travel. “You’re going to see an overall decrease because of uncertainty and because people’s money is worth 10% less than a week ago.” He added that many British people would be less inclined to take a holiday during a time of uncertainty, particularly in the finance sector, where people might be frowned on for taking leave when the country was facing a crisis. He added that many high-nett-worth individuals booking luxury safaris to Africa worked in this sector.
On a positive note, Asher pointed out that, while overall travel from the UK was likely to decline, UK travellers who still travelled were likely to do so to destinations with weaker currencies. For this reason, he said, destinations like Namibia and South Africa would be favoured over destinations in Africa that were priced in dollars, such as East Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia and Botswana.
However, Roy Davies of UK-based World Discoveries, believed there was unlikely to be much of an effect on travel, other than that of the exchange rate should pricing change. “After the initial over-reaction, the pound is already bouncing back,” he said.
