The latest Statistics SA figures have shown that US arrivals into South Africa continued to drop, down 6% in January 2015 compared with the same period in 2014. This slow downward slide began in November 2014 after three years of sustained growth out of the US. With SA acting as the main port of entry for travellers visiting the rest of sub-Saharan Africa, it is likely that this drop-off indicates a general slowdown in American visitors to the rest of the region too.
Ken Hermer of Journeys in Style says the initial sharp decrease in November 2014 can be attributed to the Ebola scare. Julian Harrison, President of Premier Tours agrees, and says the terrorist attack in Garissa, Kenya and xenophobic violence in SA were also contributing factors in the continuation of the decline.
“In addition, the US dollar is relatively strong compared to the euro,” says Harrison. “Americans have always felt that Europe is an expensive destination and now that the euro has dropped approximately 20%-25% against the dollar, the destination has become far more attractive.”
However, the majority of US-based tour operators say they have noticed only a marginal drop in business, which may indicate that direct business has been the hardest hit by the decrease in US tourists.
Betty Jo Currie, Founder of Currie & Co Travels Unlimited, says she has seen only a slight drop off, particularly for Kenya, but not a dramatic decrease. “Because we sell Africa as a tour operator, as do many of our colleagues in Safari Professionals of the Americas, the business tends to flow to us, especially when people want their hands held and reassurance,” says Currie.
According to US-based tour operators, the Southern African destinations faring best at this stage include Botswana, SA, Tanzania as well as Zimbabwe and Zambia. Hermer says Zambia’s political stability, pristine environment and good value for money make it very attractive. “Zimbabwe is also getting more focus due to new camps and lodges opening and more operators are beginning to promote Zimbabwe as a good value add-on to South Africa and Botswana,” he adds.
Looking forward, tour operators are hopeful for a recovery. Bert Duplessis, Owner of Fish Eagle Safaris, says he has already noticed a strong rebound in new enquiries and future bookings. “We were really busy right from the word go in January this year, and March 2015 was one of our best months ever in terms of new bookings. He does mention though, that he expects the increase to be gradual. “If anything, it will be a slow process as Brand Africa has been damaged. Of course, this presents us with a good opportunity to demonstrate to would-be visitors that the perceived danger of African travel is not a true reflection of the situation on the ground,” he says.
The local industry are also optimistic that travel out of the US will rebound in 2016. Robert More, CEO of More Hotels, says he has noticed the return of the incentive and MICE markets, which were absent in 2015.
Craig Glaathaar, US Sales Manager for Wilderness Safaris, agrees that the US market is looking positive for future bookings for 2015/2016, despite a few concerns. “We plan to work closely with African experts who know the destination well. Together we are dispelling myths that Africa is not safe, that Ebola is even relevant in the areas where we operate, and that terrorism is preventing guests from a truly magical safari experience,” he says.
Increased focus on marketing efforts may also help reignite interest in Southern Africa. Hermer says SA Tourism’s advertising campaigns on CNN and other high-profile television stations are hitting the mark and should continue. “SAA, along with SA Tourism, must continue to arrange trade events and workshops countrywide to further educate American and Canadian travel industry members and invitations to Southern African operators as well as choice America-based companies is key.” He also warns that clearer vision and implementation of the rules and regulations dominating the movement of children under 18 years of age into South Africa needs to happen very quickly.
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All US-based tour operators unanimously agreed that the region needs a period of political stability in order for arrivals not only to recover but to grow in 2016. Harrison says: “Provided there are no new developments for the remainder of this year that perpetuate the perception of lawlessness, terrorism and uncontrolled diseases in Africa, I do believe that we will see a steady increase in demand in 2016.”
