Key long-haul source markets are showing early behavioural shifts in response to ongoing Middle East airspace disruption with delayed booking decisions, rising travel costs and constrained air access shaping demand patterns.
While underlying interest in travel to Southern Africa remains intact, industry feedback points to growing caution across the Middle East, US and Indian markets with conversion rates under pressure.
Middle East: Caution, flexibility and deferred demand
Speaking to Tourism Update, Rob Hetem, Director: Strategic Development at T-Cubed Consulting, said: “Since the onset of the conflict, we have seen an immediate shift towards caution and flexibility with agents prioritising cancellation policy options and a noticeable preference for postponements rather than outright cancellation or, in the event of new travel plans, caution about making any firm commitments.
“Travellers are adopting a wait-and-see approach as they seek greater clarity on safety, routing stability and overall travel conditions.”
Operational disruptions, particularly around airspace and rerouting, are directly impacting booking confidence. “When travellers are unsure whether flights will operate as scheduled or whether journeys may become more complex, prolonged or expensive, they are more likely to delay committing to long-haul travel plans.”
Hetem confirmed that cancellations and postponements are being managed in the short term, largely driven by flight disruptions rather than destination concerns. However, he warned of mounting financial pressure across the value chain. “The financial impact of cancellations, deferred bookings and associated administrative costs and lost revenue is significant,” said Hetem.
Despite this, demand signals remain positive for later travel periods. Hetem said: “We continue to receive enquiries for future travel, particularly for the July to September peak season, which suggests that underlying demand remains intact despite current uncertainty.”
The timing of the disruption during Ramadan may be suppressing current activity with potential for a rebound if conditions stabilise, he added. “It is likely that some demand is currently deferred rather than being lost entirely.”
US: Resilience at the top end, pressure from rising costs
From the US market, there is no evidence yet that geopolitical risk is materially affecting traveller sentiment.
Responding to concerns about potential long-term impacts linked to terrorism risk, Rhino Africa Founder & Owner David Ryan, during a recent SATSA webinar, said: “We haven’t sensed that from our American guests.”
US outbound travel has historically proven resilient to geopolitical threats, Ryan added, stating: “America, since 9/11, has lived under the threat of terrorism and it’s done nothing to demand. In fact, demand has increased.”
However, pricing remains a potential constraint. Deborah Calmeyer, ROAR AFRICA CEO and Founder, said: “As airfares escalate to untold heights, no doubt people will not fly long distances.”
She noted that, while ultra-high-net-worth travellers are likely to continue travelling, broader demand may soften if costs remain elevated. “Clients will always keep travelling as long as they can do it safely.”
It remains too early to determine longer-term trends, Calmeyer added, stating: “Time and sentiment of safety returns will tell on how fast this gets resolved.”
India: Access constraints and timing risks
The Indian market is showing heightened sensitivity due to its reliance on Middle East hubs for connectivity.
Royal African Discoveries MD Johan Groenewald said travellers are holding back on decisions, stating: “They’re adopting a ‘wait and see’ attitude. Not cancelling yet but not committing to any new bookings and not confirming pending bookings.”
He stressed the importance of Middle East routing for the market, adding: “The Middle East is a huge channel for access to South Africa. The removal of this channel has massive implications as the alternatives are limited and don’t have the capacity to replace the number of seats available.”
Alternative routes via African carriers are insufficient to absorb demand, said Groenewald. “Ethiopian Airlines is the natural alternative but could never replace the Middle East channel in terms of capacity.”
Premium travellers are particularly affected, added Hetem. “The premium segment will not ‘downgrade’ to a lower quality product compared Emirates or Qatar.”
With India’s peak travel period approaching from late April through June, the timing of the disruption presents a significant risk. “All these bookings are currently at risk,” said Groenewald.
He warned that prolonged disruption could redirect demand to competing destinations. “If we miss the peak travel period, it will be hugely detrimental for South Africa’s 2026 as the travellers will divert to other areas such as Southeast Asia and Australia.”
Lack of direct air access between India and South Africa compounds the issue, he added. “The absence of a direct flight from India to South Africa is already hampering growth. This will just worsen the situation.”
