South Africa’s inbound tourism arrivals continued to grow in May but analysts warn that the recovery of overseas source markets remains uneven with several still well below pre-pandemic levels.
According to the latest International Tourism Report from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA), total arrivals in May this year were 14.4% higher than the same month in 2019 and 7.2% higher than May 2025.
Overall, total overseas arrivals showed modest growth, increasing by 12.1% year on year in May and 2.8% above pre-pandemic levels.
European arrivals were 8.1% higher than in May 2019 and 19% higher than May 2025. Despite current geopolitical tensions, the North American market has shown consistent growth, increasing 17.2% above 2019 and 11.8% year on year.
Arrivals from Central and South America demonstrated one of the more dynamic recovery profiles among long-haul source markets with a sharp 34.5% year-on-year increase. May volumes grew at 18.4% above May 2019.
African arrivals, which continued to account for the largest share of total inbound volumes, showed a 6% increase compared with May 2025 and a 17.7% increase from May 2019 arrivals.
Asia remained the weakest long-haul performer, down 41.7% on 2019 levels and 13.9% behind 2025. India remained a notable weak spot with arrivals down 44% year on year and 65% below pre-pandemic levels.
Arrivals from the Middle East were 17.3% above 2019 levels but declined by 5.4% year on year, which could be attributed to the conflict.
Australasia arrivals were 9.1% higher year on year and 21.9% above 2019 levels.
Here is the full breakdown:
While it was encouraging that South Africa’s total arrivals are growing year to date, overseas arrivals growth of just over 6% remains lacklustre, Lee-Anne Bac, Advisory Partner: Tourism at BDO South Africa, told Tourism Update.
“The reality is, year to date, overseas arrivals are still 8% behind the 2018 level, our previous high-water mark, and 6% behind 2019. To think that we are still comparing our stats to pre-COVID data is very distressing. We should have been way past this by now.”
Bac said year-to-date source market data shows recovery remained uneven.
“The UK has been growing in spurts but the market is still 4% behind year-to-date 2019 levels even with growth of nearly 6% on 2025. The fact that France and Italy are 15% and 18% behind 2019, respectively, is very concerning.”
Bac noted a slump in Asian source markets since February but the decline slowed extensively in May.
“The Indian market is highly affected by the Middle East war and challenges with air connectivity through this region. This market relies heavily on hubbing through the Middle East. In 2026, we received close to 22 000 Indian visitors compared to 31 000 in 2025 and 42 000 in 2019. In China’s case, with only 13 000 visitors year to date, compared with 17 300 year to date in 2025 and 39 500 year to date in 2019, we have to accept that we are dealing with a crisis.”
However, Bac noted that certain markets are growing well, including Russia, the US, Ghana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. However, she warned that the African market could come under pressure next month due to current anti-immigration sentiment in South Africa.
“African tourists are unwilling to visit South Africa due to concerns about personal safety. This is impacting ‘real’ leisure and business travellers, which is hugely detrimental to our economy.”
