Hotel and lodge investment across Africa remains strong but climate-resilient development requirements are beginning to change who can participate in the sector.
Recent hospitality outlooks from firms including JLL, Knight Frank and W Hospitality Group point to sustained investor appetite across markets such as Kenya, South Africa and Rwanda, even as sustainability standards tighten and climate risks intensify.
The result, they say, is a sector becoming more sophisticated, more selective and potentially less accessible to local African ownership.
“Climate is increasingly becoming a barrier to local ownership,” says Judy Kepher-Gona, Founder and Executive Director of the Sustainable Travel and Tourism Agenda.
“The standards for hotel development are becoming far more demanding. To build a property that can be managed by an international brand today, you must meet strict sustainability and climate requirements like LEED and EDGE certification, climate de-risking, material carbon assessments and much more.
“It is no longer enough to simply construct a building. Investors now ask ‘What is the carbon footprint of your construction materials? How much water will be used? What mitigation systems are in place?’ These are technical questions many local developers are not yet equipped to answer.”
Shift already underway
Across Africa, climate change is already altering investment patterns.
In safari destinations, prolonged droughts and water scarcity are affecting the viability of lodge developments in fragile ecosystems. Shifting wildlife patterns, driven by changing rainfall and habitat stress, are forcing investors to reconsider the long-term attractiveness of some once-prime safari locations.
Along the coast, rising sea levels, beach erosion and stronger storm surges are prompting more cautious investment in beachfront hospitality projects.
Trevor Ward, Managing Director of W Hospitality Group, says climate is not always the direct deterrent. It is growing demand for sustainability at every level of the investment chain.
“It’s not so much climate change directly. It’s demand from investors, hotel chains and consumers for sustainability, lower carbon footprints, water conservation, community involvement and wealth creation.”
That pressure is now institutionalised in financing and regulatory structures.
“The IFC, for example, will not lend unless a project is green-compliant,” Ward notes. “EU and other regulations demand that companies report annually on their sustainability agendas.
“Insurance companies will assess the risks involved in complying or not complying and may not provide cover.”
Local ownership impact
While these shifts may improve environmental outcomes, experts warn they could also deepen inequality in hospitality ownership if African developers are not equipped to adapt.
“As climate risks increase, the cost and complexity of compliance rise,” Kepher-Gona says. “And, if Africans do not keep up, our chances of owning hospitality assets reduce further.”
She argues that many African developers lack access not only to affordable financing but also to the technical expertise now required to design and deliver globally compliant hospitality projects.
She notes that many architecture, engineering, construction and hospitality training programmes across Africa still do not teach the competencies increasingly required in climate-conscious hospitality development and management.
“Do they know how to calculate material carbon? Many do not,” she says. “Do hospitality schools teach future managers how to calculate waste per guest per night, energy use per guest or waste reduction metrics? Most do not.”
According to Kepher-Gona, the hospitality manager of the future must understand sustainability, environmental systems and operational efficiency – not just guest service and hotel operations. “Otherwise, global brands will continue bringing in expatriates for senior roles because they possess the technical language and expertise required.”
Governance stumbling block
Africa’s tourism planning systems often fail because environmental governance remains weak despite policies on paper, she adds. “Africa does not necessarily lack policies but enforcement.”
“If you look at environmental governance literature across the continent, the recurring issue is weak enforcement, inconsistent implementation and subjective approvals.”
She argues that developments often proceed even when environmental science suggests they should not. “Decisions are being based on economics rather than science.”
To change that, Kepher-Gona says the sector must move beyond basic environmental impact assessments and adopt more rigorous ecological modelling and long-term climate planning.
“We need to stop asking only whether land is available and capital exists,” she says. “We need to ask whether the ecology can sustain that development over the long term.”
Questions about soil resilience, erosion risk, wetland shifts, biodiversity pressure and long-term landscape changes should become central to investment decisions, she argues.
This does not mean halting tourism investment altogether, says Kepher-Gona. “It means the right investment in the right places. Maybe an area can be used but only seasonally. Maybe traffic routes must rotate. Maybe some areas require limits on intensity of use. That is what science-based planning looks like.”
