South Africa’s tourism sector is likely to feel the impact of rising global airfares, industry leaders warned during a State of the Industry panel discussion at WTM Africa in Cape Town with long-haul access already under pressure and regional connectivity across Africa remaining expensive.
Africa Tourism Partners CEO Kwakye Donkor said Africa’s reliance on Middle East carriers as key connectors means the continent cannot escape the impact of current disruptions. “We are not going to be safe from this crisis. If you look at connectivity, one of the biggest suppliers of airlift into Africa is the Middle Eastern airlines. Besides that, a lot of the airlines in Africa connect to the Middle East to get here. So automatically the numbers are going to be reduced.”
SATSA CEO David Frost said the warning comes at a time when South Africa’s inbound recovery has finally begun returning to pre-pandemic levels after a slower-than-expected rebound.
“In 2025, we were up at 92% of where we were in 2019 so everything was moving in the right direction.”
However, Frost said rising fuel costs and airfare pressure now pose a serious risk to that recovery momentum.
“The cost of fuel and airfares is the big spectre that is going to bedevil us going forward.”
Frost said the impact is already visible in long-haul pricing. “If you’re looking at economy fares coming out of Europe at R40 000 to R50 000 and you’re a family of four, that’s R200 000 before you’ve spent a cent on a hotel.” He also cited a recent example an airline mentioned: a quote for business class airfare between Johannesburg and Los Angeles of over R430 000.
What can be done?
Despite the warning signals around access, panellists said demand for Africa remains resilient although traveller behaviour is shifting.
Go2Africa Head of Positive Impact and Product Development Liesel van Zyl said enquiry volumes have not dropped but decision timelines have changed. “We have seen a strong robustness in enquirers but they are taking longer; they’re a little bit more nervous.
“There’s pressure on agents to nurture more and to meet each client and potential guest in Africa with real understanding of their challenges. There’s more opportunity to build trust, to nurture and really to be able to offer flexibility where that’s important.”
Frost said the industry should avoid rigid responses when uncertainty affects travel plans. “Let’s rather postpone a trip. Be sanguine.”
Rashid Toefy, Deputy Director General in the Western Cape Department of Economic Development and Tourism, said how destinations respond during periods of uncertainty will shape traveller confidence over the longer term. “You can’t just stitch together your reputation and trust. That’s something you take years to build and it can be gone just like that.”
Positioning the destination clearly during uncertainty will help reassure travellers navigating a volatile global environment, he added.
“If you’re clear on your sort of North Star as a brand, that’s what travellers appreciate.”
The industry should respond by focusing on what it can control, particularly in terms of marketing and rebuilding destination knowledge lost during the COVID pandemic, Frost added.
He encouraged destinations to bring more agents to the region through familiarisation travel and trade engagement.
“What we see today is what we did or didn’t do collectively 18 months ago. It’s an opportunity to do some really good investing for the future.”
