South Africa’s first quarter (Q1) arrival stats have prompted reflection on the tourism sector’s early performance in 2025 with private-sector leaders emphasising that the sluggish pace of the country’s post-COVID recovery necessitates a strategic rethink.
Official figures from Statistics South Africa show that overseas arrivals totalled just over 641 000 between January and March – a 3% rise from Q1 2024 but still around 90% of pre-COVID 2019.
SATSA CEO David Frost says South Africa needs to move from heavy reliance on seasonal peaks and traditional top source markets such as the US and the UK.
“Many of our competitors have not just caught up – they’ve pulled ahead. If we are serious about competing on the global stage, we cannot rest on seasonal highs. We must double down, and focus on growth markets, consistency and outperforming last year’s trajectory.”
Frost says, while markets such as the US (103% of Q1 2019) and the Netherlands (106%) are enjoying full recoveries, stagnation in historically strong markets such as the UK (94%), Germany (94%) and France (76%) demand “reflection and renewed intervention”.
“South Africa remains a compelling, world-class destination. The challenge now is clear: remove the remaining barriers to entry and accelerate momentum through unified action and a focused marketing strategy,” says Frost.
Lee-Anne Bac, Advisory Partner at BDO South Africa, says the year-on-year growth rate of 5.7% in total arrivals (including intra-African arrivals) is well behind what the country needs to reach its target of 15 million by 2030.
“We need a compound growth rate of 9.1% every year in order to hit that target so the current levels of growth are disappointing,” says Bac.
Boosting emerging markets
South Africa needs to broaden its source market focus, emphasise Bac and Frost.
“Maybe our traditional markets are not our markets for the future. I think we need to look beyond that – at campaigns beyond the traditional. We’ve relied heavily on the European and US markets. We need to be more deliberate in targeting the markets showing good growth and be creative in marketing to them,” says Bac.
Central America and Australasia, which recorded year-on-year growth rates of 15.8% and 10.4% respectively, have both benefited from the resumption of direct flights in 2023 – an indicator of the power of enhanced connectivity, according to Frost.
“The strong recovery from Brazil and Australia, despite limited airlift, demonstrates what’s possible when demand is present. Where there’s demand, we must work with airline partners to unlock supply. A unified, strategic approach to air access is essential.”
South Africa also needs sharper market insights, particularly for repeat travellers, says Frost.
“Anecdotally, South Africa enjoys high levels of repeat visitation. Travellers return because they recognise value for money, excellent service and exceptional experiences. This loyal segment is key to driving dispersion beyond our traditional hotspots – and we should be investing more intentionally in attracting them back.
“We cannot keep applying the same playbook we’ve used for the past decade. It hasn’t delivered the growth the industry requires. Global traveller behaviours have shifted. Now is the time to re-engage with key markets, challenge entrenched assumptions, and deeply understand new motivations, behaviours and spending patterns.”
China and India under-leveraged
Frost says China and India, which together represent a potential 172 million outbound travellers annually, are still significantly held back by visa complexity (despite the recent implementation of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme) and limited air connectivity. Arrivals in South Africa from China equated to just 44% of 2019 levels in Q1 2025 with India at 82%.
“We must stop accepting outdated assumptions about these travellers. Chinese visitors are high-value consumers – just look at their spending power in premium retail and hospitality environments across Europe. To write them off as low-margin tourists is wholly inaccurate,” says Frost.
Drop in business tourism raises concern
Bac warns that the poor performance of hotels in key business districts such as Sandton, reflecting the country’s broader economic health, is a cause for concern.
“If the business tourists are not coming, this means we’ve got an overall economic problem. We must ensure that our country is attractive for investment and residency. If we get these basics right, we will naturally attract more business tourism and those business tourists come back with their families for leisure purposes,” she says.
Consistent engagement between the public and private sectors is crucial, reiterates Frost.
“Industry operators – those with boots on the ground and in-depth market knowledge – must play a role in shaping national marketing strategies. Without a national, coordinated approach, we will not see meaningful growth beyond our iconic destinations. Cape Town and the Kruger National Park have fully recovered. But, with limited availability during peak season, we risk deflecting travellers to competitor markets. This isn’t just a missed opportunity – it’s a looming strategic failure,” stresses Frost.
Click here for an interactive map of South Africa's latest and historical inbound tourism stats (excluding countries marked as "Other" in Stats SA reporting).
