African airlines are facing mounting pressure as surging jet fuel prices and fears about future supply stability threaten to push already fragile carriers to breaking point with industry leaders warning that some airlines may not survive the latest crisis.
The sharp escalation in fuel costs, driven largely by instability in the Middle East and concerns about supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz, has reignited fears about the long-term sustainability of African aviation, particularly for smaller and financially constrained operators.
Speaking at the recent IATA Focus Africa 2026 conference in Addis Ababa, Ethiopian Airlines Group CEO Mesfin Tasew warned that sustained fuel price pressure could force some carriers out of business.
He said that the situation has reached a critical point, noting that fuel costs have been climbing at an alarming rate. While he acknowledged that certain carriers possess the resilience to weather the storm, he cautioned that others may not survive the financial strain, reports travelnews.africa.
Availability concerns
According to the Airlines Association of Southern Africa (AASA), jet fuel prices in Southern Africa have, on average, more than tripled from around R8.50 (US$0.51) per litre in mid-February to over R30 (US$1.82) per litre by mid-April. In landlocked countries such as Malawi, prices have exceeded R50 (US$3.04) per litre.
AASA CEO Aaron Munetsi noted that Southern Africa’s aviation industry is particularly susceptible to supply disruptions because of its heavy dependence on imported crude oil and refined jet fuel.
He also called for urgent clarity on jet fuel availability beyond May, warning that uncertainty about supply could place further pressure on airfares.
“Airlines require certainty on the security of jet fuel supplies beyond a six-week horizon if they are to maintain their schedules and fulfil their obligations to customers.”
Munetsi warned that, even if blockades in the Strait of Hormuz are lifted soon, damaged Gulf refineries could take months to recover.
The latest spike has already forced most SADC-based airlines to introduce fuel surcharges while some carriers have started reducing frequencies and consolidating flights.
“Airlines are painfully aware of the pressure that increased ticket prices exert on their customers and the ripple effects across the economy,” Munetsi said.
“At the same time, airlines should not be expected to absorb the shock on their own. Airports and air navigation service providers must also come to the fore and collaborate with airlines in this regard.”
Despite the alarm from airlines, the Fuels Industry Association of South Africa (FIASA) has confirmed that jet fuel supply after May is supported by stable imports, diversified sourcing and domestic refining capacity.
FIASA’s Head of Industry and Logistics Siganeko Magafela said South Africa has increased imports from the west coast of Africa, Nigeria and the US while domestic production capacity remains operational.
‘Doom loop’
Kirby Gordon, Chief Marketing Officer of FlySafair, described the situation as potentially existential for some operators.
“Rising fuel costs can move the needle from a profitability problem to a survival crisis pretty quickly, precisely because fuel is such a dominant part of the cost base,” Gordon told Tourism Update.
“For low-cost carriers like us, more than half of the direct operating costs of a flight are fuel in normal circumstances so, when those spike, the effect is dramatic and fast. Every business needs to be geared to weather a few storms but there are storms and then there are tsunamis, and the line between them is often only visible in hindsight.”
Gordon warned of a “doom loop” emerging across the industry as airlines raise fares to offset costs only to see demand soften as passengers are priced out of travel.
“You raise prices to a level that makes operations sustainable, which inevitably means a portion of your market can no longer afford to fly; so they don't. Demand drops, you trim the schedule, you lose economies of scale, your cost per seat increases, you need to recover more through fares, demand drops further and the loop spins on.”
According to Gordon, airlines are already planning for weaker demand in the South African domestic market.
“A normal capacity reduction for May might be around 10-11%. I’m calculating overall domestic industry capacity reductions of around 16% this month, which tells you that airlines are absolutely planning for softer demand.”
Gordon said the crisis will expose operational weaknesses across the sector, including inefficient capacity management, poor asset utilisation, aging and fuel-inefficient fleets and poorly structured commercial arrangements.
Could this crisis become the final blow for some African airlines? “In some cases, almost certainly yes,” he said.
Gordon pointed to the collapse of Comair as an example of how even well-run airlines can succumb to extreme external shocks.
At the same time, he suggested the crisis could accelerate structural changes in African aviation, particularly among state-owned carriers.
“State airlines often survive circumstances that would finish a private carrier because their investors don’t always have a cold commercial mandate,” he said.
Rather than disappearing entirely, Gordon believes some airlines may evolve into alternative operating models, citing LAM Mozambique Airlines as an example of a national carrier increasingly relying on commercial partnerships and codeshare arrangements to fulfil its connectivity mandate.
“If there is a silver lining to emerge from this crisis, perhaps it’s that adversity can be a catalyst for structural evolution rather than just an obituary,” Gordon said.
“The pressure being applied right now may finally create the political will to rethink not just which airlines survive but what form African national aviation policy should take in the future. That would be a meaningful and lasting outcome from a deeply uncomfortable moment.”
