Safari demand remains resilient despite a difficult peak season for some operators with geopolitical uncertainty, longer booking journeys and increased price shopping affecting the conversion of interest into confirmed bookings.
In a recent Tourism Update poll, 43% of respondents reported weaker demand this peak season compared to 2025 while 30% said performance was about the same and 27% reported an improvement.
However, feedback from major safari operators suggests the weaker performance does not necessarily reflect a concerning decline in appetite for African safaris with several reporting that demand has recovered in recent months.
Demand versus conversion
David Ryan, Founder and CEO of Rhino Africa, said the company’s high season is performing broadly in line with last year although the booking pattern has changed.
He said the company’s average lead time for high-end African safari bookings is currently between 186 and 190 days, meaning much of the demand for the current peak season was converted several months earlier.
“Our peak booking time for this high season was January to March. January, from a conversion perspective, was brilliant. February was actually pretty good. Then, in March, it fell flat because the war started.”
According to Ryan, demand for African safaris did not disappear when geopolitical tensions escalated but the proportion of enquiries converting into bookings fell between March and April.
“Actual demand for Africa, or interest in Africa, didn’t really move. But we saw a decrease in conversion, which I think has led – and I think this was pretty much across the industry – to lower arrivals now.”
Ryan said Rhino Africa’s performance is supported by its strong repeat and referral business with new business more exposed to uncertainty.
“We operate probably around 60% to 65% of our business on repeat and referral. Repeat and referral business is much easier to convince to travel than new business.”
African Bush Camps MD Maija de Rijk-Uys also linked the softer period to geopolitical uncertainty, saying the company experienced a strong start to the year before demand softened from around March.
“As the situation received sustained global attention, we saw some increased hesitation among potential travellers considering international travel to Africa.”
However, she said the situation has improved over the past two months.
“More recently, we have seen a clear improvement in demand. Over the past two months, bookings and enquiries have strengthened as the news cycle has settled and travellers appear to be feeling more confident about travelling to Africa.”
De Rijk-Uys said there has also been some additional friction in the decision-making process with travellers taking longer to commit and booking timelines extending.
“We are also seeing more shopping around and increased last minute deal activity. In some cases, we are seeing multiple agents making enquiries for what appears to be the same underlying client, which is indicative of a more considered purchasing journey.”
She said the most noticeable change was therefore in the booking journey rather than in the fundamental level of interest in safari.
“The market is not necessarily lacking demand; there is simply more consideration and competition for that demand before travellers commit.”
This is also putting pressure on operators to balance occupancy with profitability.
“Those more dependent on full-price bookings may be experiencing greater pressure while businesses using tactical pricing to convert demand can still achieve volume targets although often at the expense of margin,” said De Rijk-Uys.
Regional performance mixed
While the broader market is showing resilience, performance varies by destination and source market.
African Bush Camps operates in Zambia, Zimbabwe and Botswana. De Rijk-Uys said Botswana is currently outperforming Zimbabwe. The US also remains a particularly strong source market for the group.
Andrew Retallack, Commercial Director for andBeyond, said the group has experienced a strong peak season overall although performance varied by region and was affected by lodge refurbishments.
Retallack said geopolitical developments, including the impact of the conflict involving Iran on Middle East airlift and fuel prices, caused short-term fluctuations in demand. He also cited the Ebola outbreak and quarantine measures introduced by some source markets as factors that temporarily increased uncertainty.
“Encouragingly, this has since recovered and we sense that travellers are becoming increasingly resilient in the way they respond to these events.”
The group has seen growing interest in Botswana with its new Nxabega Under Canvas and Sandibe Under Canvas camps performing ahead of expectations.
“Demand for South Africa has also strengthened slightly and is currently tracking above the levels we anticipated. East Africa has seen more measured demand with some pockets of softer performance,” Retallack said.
Outlook remains cautious
Despite the mixed signals, the operators are not forecasting a major deterioration in demand.
Retallack said andBeyond expects demand to remain broadly at current levels.
De Rijk-Uys said African Bush Camps is seeing “definite signs of strengthening”. The recent improvement suggests some earlier hesitation was driven by temporary external factors rather than a fundamental change in travellers’ appetite for African safari, she added.
“There is still some caution in the booking process but the renewed momentum suggests that traveller confidence is returning and the underlying appetite for African safari remains strong.”
