While North America and Australasia stand out as the only two overseas source market regions that have surpassed pre-COVID arrival levels in South Africa, an uptick in growth rates from Europe has stimulated optimism that the inbound industry will finally reach full recovery.
The latest International Tourism Report from Stats SA – covering the first half of 2025 – indicates that long-haul travel from the US appears to have been resilient in the face of economic volatility and critical remarks by US President Donald Trump on South Africa.
A total of 221 305 North American tourists visited South Africa in the first half of 2025 – standing at 101% of the comparative 2019 figure. US arrivals alone increased to 104% of the 2019 figure.
“Our traditional markets have been Germany and the Spanish-speaking markets but this year has been particularly good in terms of business from the US; we’ve received more US clients than ever before,” said Angela Matthews, Director of Alpha Destinations.
Matthews noted shorter booking lead times, even for large bookings.
“I suspect, with current geopolitical uncertainty, travellers are reluctant to make long-term plans. We’ve had some very big bookings coming in at much shorter notice than before,” said Matthews.
However, Lee-Ann Bac, Advisory Partner at BDO South Africa, pointed out that the rate of year-on-year growth from the US has slowed.
“The rate of growth between the first half of 2023 and 2024 was 7.6%. Between 2024 and 2025, it stood at 1.5%. This indicates political and economic changes seem to have had a dampening effect. It’s crucial that we maintain momentum,” said Bac.
Australasia was the only other overseas source market region to exceed pre-COVID levels, recording a 109% recovery rate with 64 058 arrivals, which Bac attributed to new air routes and frequencies added by Qantas and SAA.
European growth rates encouraging
Europe, the largest overseas source market region, accounted for a 60% share of arrivals with a recovery rate of just 89% by the end of the first half of 2025. But Bac pointed out that an uptick in this market’s growth rates over the past year is highly encouraging.
“The UK’s 8.3% growth from 2024 to 2025 is what excites me the most,” said Bac. “While the market is still well behind 2019 levels, it’s encouraging to see that our biggest overseas source market is picking up again.”
India and China down despite visa reform
Despite operators’ assertions that the implementation of the Trusted Tour Operator Scheme (TTOS) at the start of this year has significantly eased visa processing for groups from India and China, arrivals from both markets were down from the first half of 2024. India recorded a 10.9% decline while Chinese arrivals dipped by 1.5%.
An operator specialising in the Indian market told Tourism Update that, although the TTOS system is “definitely working”, it is not a miracle fix, considering the challenges faced within the market in the past.
“Previous visa issues made the Indian trade very cautious about selling South Africa so they weren’t going to suddenly start selling it blindly due to a system that wasn’t proven and had no track record.”
The operator said news of TTOS successes is steadily building trust among the Indian outbound trade.
The operator said numbers for July are about 16% up for 2025 compared to 2024 and August is looking even more promising.
Commenting on the overall half-year figures, SATSA CEO David Frost reiterated his concern that future growth prospects remain constrained by a heavy concentration of tourism in popular regions such as Cape Town and the Kruger National Park.
“When high-demand destinations reach capacity, there’s little room to grow unless we intentionally shift focus to underperforming regions and emerging products.”
