South Africa’s aviation sector is showing strong signs of recovery but its flagship carrier, South African Airways (SAA), has seen its market share eroded. Once Africa’s largest carrier, SAA has slipped to 11th place with FlySafair and Airlink leapfrogging into second and sixth places respectively.
According to OAG flight data presented in a recent webinar, overall airline capacity across Africa grew by 3.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. All African regions, except Central and West Africa, saw growth. Southern Africa recorded a 9.6% year-on-year increase in capacity while East Africa saw 9% growth.
This growth has been led by international routes, which saw a 3.5% increase in capacity, while domestic capacity fell across the continent by 3.6%.
SA’s mixed fortunes
South Africa posted a 10% increase in capacity over the past year, making it one of the top three fastest-growing African markets behind Egypt and Morocco. However, despite being the biggest airline on the continent in 2015, SAA has slipped to 11th place, dropping 69% of its seats from over 1 million in 2015 to 315 000 this year.
Ethiopian Airlines has now clinched the continent’s top spot, showing 131% growth between 2015 and 2025. FlySafair now holds second place, having leapt from 86 335 seats in 2015 to over one million seats in 2025. Regional player Airlink has risen to sixth.
However, eight of the top 20 carriers by seat capacity on the continent are not domiciled in Africa. Chief Data Analyst at OAG John Grant said these airlines make it challenging for locally based airlines to compete with “very different business, sometimes political and strategic national interests, they are trying to support”.
Deidre Fulton, Partner at Midas Aviation, said 55% of international capacity on the continent is operated by African-domiciled carriers. Middle Eastern carriers have steadily expanded their footprints across Africa. Emirates is now a top 10 carrier on the continent while Qatar Airways and Saudia have expanded their capacity by 74% and 55% respectively over the past decade.
Transatlantic links between the US and Africa are also seeing exceptional growth with the number of flights increasing by 46% since 2019. This year will see 12 new US-Africa routes introduced.
Grant said: “This begs the long-term question: What is the international, long-haul market for SAA?” He believes the airline will struggle to compete on European, Middle Eastern and North American routes, leaving SAA with limited options.
In response, Ogaga Udjo, MD of ZA Logics, said SAA should focus on what it does best, particularly routes to Brazil and Australia where its position in the East-West market offers quick connections. While the North American market will be tough, he emphasised its importance for SAA’s network, given its regional base and bilateral agreements.
