Most of South Africa’s major source market regions comfortably posted double-digit growth in arrivals for the third quarter of 2025, raising the inbound industry’s confidence of sustained momentum going into South Africa’s busy summer season.
Between July and September, overseas arrivals surged by 24% in comparison to the third quarter of 2024, according to the latest International Tourism Report from Statistics South Africa. The largest source market regions of Europe (280 322 arrivals) and North America (122 557 arrivals) grew by 21.7% and 18.4% respectively.
Click here for an interactive view of the latest and historical overseas arrival stats.
“The UK and broader Europe remain the bellwether for Cape Town (helped by extra capacity out of London) with the US continuing to deliver the high-value trips,” said Rhino Africa CEO David Ryan.
Ryan said several major international congresses in Cape Town and Johannesburg in September boosted arrival figures.
“This would have added a measurable spike to air arrivals and hotel nights beyond pure leisure demand.”
Australasia and Central and South America continued their upward trajectory in the quarter, growing by 43.1% and 41.2% respectively. Arrivals from the Middle East mushroomed by 66.6% while Asian arrivals – weighed down by a 12% decline from China and lacklustre 4.5% growth from India – grew by 16.4%.
Mid-market requires focus
Rhino Africa’s internal data shows that the luxury segment cleared pre-COVID levels to enter a growth phase but the mid-market has been “patchier”, particularly on longer itineraries, according to Ryan.
“Luxury is ahead of 2019 by most practical yardsticks (ADR, length of stay and party size) and we’re seeing higher enquiry-to-booking ratios in that tier. Mid-market remains under pressure – not because South Africa isn’t desirable but because total trip cost (airfares and long itineraries) is still elevated for a long-haul destination.”
Ryan pointed out that mid-market demand needs intensive focus as softening of the segment had stronger knock-on effects for restaurants, retail and experiences than high-end (often all-inclusive) travel.
And, while South Africa’s product mix is highly-attractive, competing with the likes of East Africa – where arrivals have recovered to well beyond pre-COVID levels – remains a challenge.
“On a like-for-like basis, Kenya and Tanzania safaris carry shorter average lead times and simpler air routing from key markets, which helps their mid-market rebound. South Africa’s product is more diversified but the total flight bill remains the psychological hurdle. Additional frequencies from the UK and the EU for the 2025/26 season help but price points are still constraining mid-tier growth,” Ryan explained.
Year-to-date figures still at 90% recovery
SATSA CEO David Frost attributed the encouraging 10.5% overseas arrivals growth in the first nine months of this year to improved air access, visa facilitation and the persistent efforts of the trade in driving demand.
He pointed out, however, with recovery still hovering at 90%, the country’s destination marketing initiatives require sharpening.
“What we need now is sharper, data-led destination marketing that aligns with market trends and empowers the private sector to convert interest into travel. We are eager to see more structured engagement with SA Tourism where private-sector expertise is actively included in shaping how and where we position the country to international markets,” Frost said.
When including intra-African arrivals, South Africa recorded just over 7.6 million arrivals for the year ended September, breaching the comparative 2019 figure by almost 73 000 arrivals.
