South Africa’s inbound tourism industry is sounding the alarm over the continued decline in arrivals from India, warning that weak air connectivity, limited destination marketing and growing competition from rival destinations are eroding the country’s position in one of the world’s fastest-growing outbound travel markets.
The concern follows the latest April 2026 arrivals data released by Statistics South Africa, which showed Indian arrivals falling from 5 627 in April 2025 to 4 158 in April 2026 – a 26.1% year-on-year decline. Compared with April 2019, arrivals from India remain 51.3% below pre-pandemic levels.
This is despite India’s outbound tourism industry entering a new growth phase, according to analysis released by Future Market Insights. The Indian outbound market is valued at US$23.4 billion in 2026 and is projected to expand to US$68.8 billion by 2036, advancing at a compound annual growth rate of 11.4% over the forecast period.
SATSA CEO David Frost told Tourism Update that the poor performance from India and China remains one of the industry’s biggest concerns.
“Asia remains a clear opportunity for South Africa. China is only 30.6% recovered against 2019 levels while India is at 58.7%. Both markets also declined year-on-year for the January to April period with China down 28.8% and India down 24.2% compared with the same period in 2025,” said Frost.
He noted that the underperformance comes despite the implementation of South Africa’s Trusted Tour Operator Scheme (TTOS) and the Electronic Travel Authorisation (ETA) system for India and China.
“This is strategically significant because TTOS implementation has now passed the one-year mark and the ETA has been in effect for these markets since November 2025. While these interventions are important steps in reducing travel friction, the data suggest that policy improvements alone are not enough to stimulate recovery. They need to be supported by stronger in-market communication, trade education, air access improvements and demand-led destination marketing.”
India remains a strategically important source market but requires far greater focus, he added.
“The market has scale, appetite and clear growth potential but it also requires sustained investment in air access, trade education and product packaging that speaks directly to Indian traveller needs. Our members are seeing interest in South Africa but converting that interest into growth will require a more deliberate, market-specific approach and a strong, structured engagement between the private and public sectors.”
Deeper issues
Industry stakeholders said the latest decline reflects long-term structural issues and more immediate geopolitical disruptions affecting air access between India and South Africa.
“The continued decline in Indian arrivals is a real concern from an inbound tourism perspective, particularly because India remains a growth market for many competing destinations,” said Johan Groenewald, MD of Royal African Discoveries.
“For South Africa, however, the market has moved in the opposite direction, pointing to deeper structural challenges around market strategy, destination positioning and conversion.”
Groenewald said the April figures are further impacted by instability in the Middle East where most Indian travellers connect to South Africa.
“April reflects a ‘double whammy’: a market already under pressure, compounded by short-term disruption to one of its key air access corridors.”
SATSA members are already seeing weaker performance during the traditional Indian peak travel season with May and June also tracking below 2025 and 2019 levels, Groenewald added.
He welcomes the ETA system but said years of frustration about South Africa’s visa system cannot be reversed overnight.
“The ETA is an important step in reducing travel friction for Indian visitors. Without interventions such as the ETA and TTOS, the decline may have been even sharper.”
South Africa’s lack of direct flights is becoming a major disadvantage, Groenewald added.
“Since COVID, many competing destinations have introduced direct flights from India and Indian travellers have become increasingly accustomed to seamless, direct connectivity. Ease of access is now a major factor in destination choice and South Africa is losing ground to markets that are easier and more convenient to reach.”
Groenewald said government’s target of attracting 100 000 Indian arrivals remains achievable but only if the market receives greater strategic attention.
“It will require a sharper market strategy, appropriate investment in India, stronger trade engagement and, ideally, improved air access.”
Collin Thaver, Business Development Director at Southern Africa 360, said a dedicated recovery plan for India is urgently needed.
“This should prioritise improved air access, through restored direct connectivity or more predictable one-stop routing options, alongside stronger in-market communication around the ETA and South Africa’s improved ease of travel.”
Cape Town’s high hotel occupancy and pricing during February and March are also creating challenges for the Indian MICE market, Thaver added.
“Large international conferences, parliamentary sittings and major city-wide events have tightened availability and pushed hotel rates well above standard summer trading levels.”
From the Indian outbound market’s perspective, operators said South Africa is increasingly losing share to competing destinations that are easier to access and more aggressively marketed.
Trevor Hewett, MD at African Pride Tours, said South Africa needs to focus on two priorities: creating consumer demand and improving air connectivity.
“I speak to Indian agents regularly and they consistently tell me that there is little or no marketing taking place to affect consumer demand.”
Indian operator insights
Tourism Update also spoke to India-based outbound tour operators who voiced similar concerns.
Jimmy Rawal, CEO and Product Director at Adler Tours & Safaris, described current demand as “stagnant”.
“Enquiries have declined and guests are hesitant to book or even inquire.”
Rawal pointed to high airfares, indirect routing and geopolitical instability as key barriers to growth.
“There is no direct connectivity between India and South Africa. Most flights from India are via the Middle East and the present war affects this with uncertainty.”
Rawal also believes destination marketing in India is needed. “This is dormant at the moment.”
Anshu Tejuja, Director of Ashoka Dream Holidays, said South Africa remains aspirational for Indian travellers, particularly for wildlife, luxury and experiential travel, but is losing momentum against competing destinations.
“Indian travellers today strongly prioritise convenience, online accessibility, fast confirmations and perceived safety. There has been some slowdown in conversions and forward bookings over the past 12-18 months, particularly in the mid-market leisure segment.
“Enquiries may still come in but travellers today compare multiple destinations online very aggressively before making decisions. Many clients are also booking much later than earlier due to global uncertainty, fluctuating travel costs and currency fluctuations,” Tejuja said.
Destinations such as Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Japan and parts of Europe are outperforming South Africa because of better air connectivity and competitive fares, easier visa processes and stronger digital marketing visibility, Tejuja added.
Shanam Jain, Head of Marketing and Product at Maurya Travels, said interest in Africa remains strong but South Africa is now competing against a wider range of African destinations.
“We’re seeing growing interest in Kenya, Tanzania, Botswana, Rwanda and even Namibia.”
Stronger trade engagement and destination marketing are urgently needed, Jain added.
“What’s missing is a more structured, proactive marketing approach such as regular trade trainings, destination webinars and familiarisation trips that keep the destination top of mind.”
© Now Media. This content, including images, is protected by copyright and may not be copied, reused, adapted or republished without permission. If you would like to discuss content-sharing or cooperation opportunities, please contact: editor@tourismupdate.com.
