Stats treated with cautious optimism

ADJUSTED preliminary figures released by the World Tourism Organisation (WTO) indicate that global international tourist arrivals reached 657m in 1999, an increase of 3,2% over the previous year. This confirms earlier predictions that the tourism sector would 'rebound' in 1999 after two years of 'restrained growth' due in part to the Asian economic crisis, although figures are not as high as originally expected. The WTO had reported in a release last November that '99 growth was expected to be in the region of 4-5%, reaching an estimated 665m to 670m arrivals by year end. In 1998, international tourist arrivals reached 635m, an increase of 2,5% over 1997. Earnings from international tourists were also expected to have risen by 3,2% last year to reach R2 958bn (US$455bn), following two consecutive years of flat growth. Receipts, excluding airfares, had climbed a mere 0,2% in 1998, to R2 854bn (US$439bn). Responding to the results, ceo of Cape Metropolitan Tourism, Rick Taylor, said the increase in tourism numbers and international expenditure could only have a positive knock-on effect for local tourism arrivals, given that WTO figures also indicate that tourism to Africa grew by 9% in 1999. However, this is based, in part, on a number of estimated statistics. South Africa, as an example, has still released actual arrival statistics only to June 1999. This aside, the 9% estimated increase puts the continent in the top five regions for growth behind Central America (23%), the Middle East (17,5%) and South America (10%), with South Africa remaining Africa's most popular tourism destination. "The increase is a positive sign for things to come", said Taylor, "and will certainly assist us with reaching our objective of attracting 9,24m international tourists per year to greater Cape Town by the year 2020." (Elizabeth Sheridan)