Air arrivals in South Africa from several African markets decreased mid-year, as tourism businesses reported growing concern about the impact of xenophobia, although Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) recorded an increase of 14.3% in the first half of 2026 and 14.2% in July.
Despite strong growth earlier in the year, there was 4.8% decline mid-year with a significant year-on-year decrease in arrivals from Ghana and Nigeria.
However, industry sources caution that xenophobia cannot be isolated as the cause while airfares, connectivity and economic factors influence demand.
Arrivals from Ghana and Nigeria fell 17.8% and 30.3% respectively year on year in June. Kenyan arrivals were flat with an increase of 0.1%.
In July, Ghana was down 30.5%, Nigeria 24.1% and Kenya 12.6%.
What the numbers show
Analysing StatsSA data, Lee-Anne Bac, Partner: Strategic Development and Advisory at BDO South Africa, says the year-on-year decline in African air arrivals, which she describes as the best available metric for measuring higher-spend visitors, follows 18% growth in African air arrivals during June and July 2025 and 13% growth during the first five months of 2026.
The decline equates to about 20 000 fewer African air arrivals in June and July this year, she says.
“A reduction in this number of visitors will definitely be felt across the formal tourism industry.”
Overall growth in African arrivals is overwhelmingly driven by the Southern African Development Community (SADC), which accounted for 98% of all African visitors in June and July. Visitors from South Africa’s neighbouring countries, mainly Mozambique, Zimbabwe and Lesotho, accounted for 93%.
“These three leading markets, in terms of numbers, are masking the real impact on our SADC and African arrivals,” says Bac. “Many are overnight visitors who are not tourists partaking in South Africa’s formal tourism infrastructure so the increase in demand is unlikely to have translated into revenue in hotels, attractions, activities and MICE facilities.”
Compared to the same period in 2025, arrivals from Angola, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria and Uganda were collectively 5 500 lower in June and July this year.
“These markets are key as they have a fairly high average trip spend. These 5 500 visitors would have spent R126 million (US$7.68 million) in our economy,” says Bac.
Tourism businesses seeing impact
Tourism businesses are reporting signs that negative sentiment is influencing African travellers.
Marcel von Aulock, Executive Director and CEO of Southern Sun, in his keynote address at the recent SATSA conference, said the group has seen a notable impact on SADC travel.
“Our reputation is becoming hostile to foreigners and it is closing off. It is not the South Africa we are and it needs to be dealt with quickly.”
Southern Sun is “seeing numbers dropping”, Von Aulock added, linking the country's xenophobia problem to another challenge for hotels: availability of workers.
He said this, considering xenophobia, could be leading to staff shortages alongside employee poaching.
Hotel Sky Group Commercial Director Inge Dykman confirmed an impact on demand amid safety concerns expressed by SADC travellers following negative news coverage.
“This is particularly important for our Sandton property where a significant proportion of our business is from SADC markets. For us, the key is not to simply wait for sentiment to change but to remain present in these markets, maintain relationships and give travellers and business partners confidence in South Africa as a destination.”
Reputational concern
The impact is further reflected in feedback from the inbound travel trade.
SATSA CEO David Frost says the association’s JulyTourism Market Pulse Survey found that 62.2% of members reported no effect on bookings following the March and March protest action.
Among those who have experienced an impact, around one in five reported cancellations, a similar share reported postponements and some received more questions from clients before they booked.
“The data mostly shows a reputational concern, not a tourism demand crisis, across our traditional source markets. Travellers are asking questions but, in most cases, they are still travelling.”
According to Frost, around one in five surveyed members reported clients raising concerns frequently or occasionally following the protests. “When concerns come up, they are quite specific.”
In the Tourism Market Pulse Survey, personal safety was cited by 64% of respondents who answered this question, xenophobia by 52% and negative international media coverage and general uncertainty about travelling to South Africa by 40% each.
“When several markets weaken amid negative coverage of South Africa, it warrants attention but we need to see what happens over the next few months before calling it a change in demand,” says Frost.
SA Tourism maintains course
Despite concerns raised by tourism businesses and the decline in African air arrivals, SA Tourism says it has not changed its approach in African markets.
SA Tourism COO Ismail Dockrat says the organisation’s sentiment data continues to show stable and positive perceptions among African travellers.
The data, sourced from Data Appeal Mabrian, is based on artificial intelligence analysis of online visitor reviews and other user-generated content. However, it reflects the experiences and perceptions of African travellers who have already visited South Africa.
“Overall sentiment was 80.2 out of a 100 for January to July 2026, representing a negligible -0.1 point change compared with January to July 2025,” Dockrat points out. “This stability indicates that visitor satisfaction has remained consistent year on year.”
Dockrat says SA Tourism has not changed its marketing in the African region, including the seasonal campaign beginning in August.
However, SA Tourism has increased engagement with in-market trade partners, he points out, providing them with information to help address questions from their clients.
