Namibia’s government says international arrivals declined in 2025 but parts of the tourism industry are questioning whether the drop is as significant as official figures suggest.
Minister of Environment, Forestry and Tourism Indileni Daniel recently released the ministry’s 2025 Tourist Statistical Report, which shows a 3.2% decline in international arrivals to 1 217 108 visitors (down from 1 257 093 in 2024).
While modest, the decline raises questions about Namibia’s competitiveness and where future growth will come from.
What’s behind the decline?
According to the report, arrivals from Germany, long one of Namibia’s most reliable markets, fell by 27.4%. Total European arrivals were down 21% with fewer visitors from France.
Daniel attributes this to tighter global economic conditions, sharper competition from rival destinations and negative publicity around recent criminal incidents targeting tourists.
She also acknowledges that Namibia’s revised visa requirements, introduced in April 2025, may have discouraged some travellers.
However, not everyone is convinced the figures tell the whole story. According to Hospitality Association of Namibia (HAN) occupancy data, there is no considerable drop in arrivals from central and German-speaking Europe.
HAN CEO Gitta Paetzold believes the segment has actually grown slightly over the past two years and this trend is echoed by Namibia Airports Company data.
HAN has therefore called for the ministry’s sampling methodology to be reviewed before firm conclusions are drawn.
The Tour and Safari Association of Namibia (TASA) notes that Namibia has become a more expensive destination since the COVID pandemic and European travellers are more price-sensitive.
As a long-haul destination, Namibia remains exposed to rising airfares and exchange rate swings.
TASA warns against favouring any single market and recommends strengthening competitiveness across the board through marketing investment, improved air access and better collaboration in reservation systems and bookings, especially for the FIT market.
More than one factor
Ally Karaerua of Natural Selection cautions against attributing the decline to any single issue.
Alongside visa changes and airfare affordability, he notes that roughly 20% of Germans opted for shorter regional holidays while block bookings continue to limit accommodation availability for markets with longer booking horizons.
Ultimately, Karaerua argues, Namibia simply hasn’t built enough capacity, in rooms and tourism superstructure, to sustain growth.
HAN suggests that safety perceptions and visa friction rarely affect every type of traveller equally. Any genuine drop is likely among self-drive and camping travellers most exposed to new visa friction.
Looking beyond Europe
Amid any debate, one figure is welcomed: US arrivals increased 8.4% to second place among overseas source markets (behind Germany).
Industry stakeholders see significant potential in building on that momentum through stronger marketing in the US, closer relationships with travel advisers and campaigns focused on the experiences already resonating with American travellers. They are also exploring opportunities in emerging eastern markets.
